A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
